I’m reading Annie Duke’s Thinking in Bets book, when going through this paragrah:
“Self-serving bias has immediate and obvious consequences for our ability to learn from experience. Blaming the bulk of our bad outcomes on luck means we miss opportunities to examine our decisions to see where we can do better. Taking credit for the good stuff means we will often reinforce decisions that shouldn’t be reinforced and miss opportunities to see where we could have done better. To be sure, some of the bad stuff that happens is mainly due to luck. And some of the good stuff that happens is mainly due to skill. I just know that’s not true all the time. 100% of our bad outcomes aren’t because we got unlucky and 100% of our good outcomes aren’t because we are so awesome. Yet that is how we process the future as it unfolds”.
Leads me to a reflection about the situations (Business meetings, Friends circles, Study groups) where “Pretending” becomes the path to reach good positioning and visibility.
Relying on superior skill when context is not stated in a transparent way open doors to missleading expertise or mastery.
What we can control are the actions, being more specific, the immediate next action to the intended goal. Based on that, Luck is often define as the intersection between Opportunity and Preparation. Preparation is in our control, however, Opportunity can be nudge but not controlled at will.
Therefore, being open-minded and humble about the role of luck in our day to day accomplishments is liberating and gives us room to enjoy life.
Will you be more aware and humble about the role of luck vs pretending superior skills?